Starting September 26, Hamster Kombat is set to hold its Token Generation Event (TGE). Additionally, other major Telegram-based airdrops, such as X Empire, Major, and MemeFi, are scheduled to launch in October. This surge in airdrop activities aligns with Toncoin's network preparing for a significant load test on the same day, September 26, at 10:00 UTC.
During previous token launches like DOGS, the TON blockchain experienced extended downtime, highlighting potential risks. However, the current focus on upcoming airdrops may create upward pressure on Toncoin’s value.
Toncoin is currently facing resistance around the 200-day EMA, with support found at the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. This has led to a price consolidation range between $5.90 and $5.45. Despite the looming death cross on the chart, the bulls appear to be defending the $5.50 psychological mark, indicating a possible challenge to the overhead trendline.
If the broader cryptocurrency market continues its recovery, a breakout above the trendline could push Toncoin toward the 78.60% Fibonacci level, targeting $7.42 to $8.18 by the end of the week. On the downside, the $5.50 support, along with the $5 mark, should provide a strong price floor for TON.
On-chain metrics reveal an increase in new, active, and zero-balance addresses within the TON ecosystem. This suggests that the community is preparing for the upcoming events, and this growth in demand could further support Toncoin’s price action.