Bitcoin's price has regained strong upward momentum, achieving seven consecutive days of inflows for the first time since November 2024. Over the past 24 hours, BTC has seen a 2.27% increase in value, with an impressive ~9% gain during the first week of January 2025.
The Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle theory suggests a recurring pattern of market behavior that unfolds over four years. According to this framework:
2024 represents the recovery and breakout year, often termed Candle 4.
2025 is predicted to be the year of the Bitcoin Bull Market peak.
2026 is expected to transition into a Bear Market.
2027 is likely to mark the Bottoming Out phase, setting the stage for the next Bull Market cycle.
Source: Rektcapital
In the current 2024 "Candle 4," Bitcoin has already rallied by +113% after breaching its Four-Year Cycle resistance, outperforming the +108% rally observed in the 2020 "Candle 4." This suggests growing momentum and potential for greater upside compared to previous cycles.
Source: Rektcapital
Recent on-chain data indicates continued accumulation by whales, a critical signal of long-term confidence. Notably, within the last six hours, three newly created wallets withdrew 2,173 BTC (valued at $221.6M) from Binance. This aligns with a broader trend of large entities accumulating Bitcoin, reducing exchange liquidity—a historically bullish indicator.
2025 Peak Prediction: Bitcoin's previous Four-Year Cycle bull peaks (2017 and 2021) demonstrated exponential growth, with gains exceeding 1,200% from their respective bottoms. Assuming Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory, it could reach $120,000–$150,000 at its 2025 peak, driven by halving dynamics, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic shifts favoring hard assets.
2026 Bear Market: As seen in past cycles, Bitcoin's Bear Market typically results in a 50–85% correction from its peak. A potential retracement to the $30,000–$50,000 range could occur during this phase.
2027 Bottoming Year: Consistent with historical behavior, Bitcoin may form its bottom in late 2027, likely coinciding with renewed accumulation by long-term holders.
Also read: Bitcoin Price Today: Why Bitcoin Is Going Up?