Altcoin Season and Bitcoin: What to Expect in 2024?
- Previous Bitcoin halvings have seen notable altcoin price increases.
- Analysis by Wise Advice shows Bitcoin's all-time high typically leads to significant growth in Ethereum and other altcoins.
- Bitcoin is experiencing weakness on the technical charts due to large-scale sell-off.
Navigating Altcoin Season and Bitcoin Trends
In a July 11 post on X, Crypto Educator & Influencer Wise Advice provides an analysis of the Altcoin season. According to the analysis, after the halving event, it takes about 1–1.5 years for Bitcoin to reach its all-time high, leading to increased growth in Ethereum and other altcoins.
Source: Tradingview Chart by WiseAdvice
The 3rd halving emerged on Nov 9, 2021, which marked the highest price for Bitcoin. Following this, on November 10, 2021, Ethereum reached its all-time high of $4,800, while Solana's all-time high of $250 was recorded 5 days earlier. Additionally, the all-time high for Polkadot was $55 on November 21, 2021, and for Avalanche, it was $146.
During the second Bitcoin halving bull in December 2017, the prices of various altcoins surged. Ethereum reached $1,400 in the first week of January, Bitcoin Cash reached $4,300, Litecoin reached $375, and Monero reached $476.
During the first halving bull in November 2013, Litecoin surged from $2 to $53, Peercoin increased from $0.37 to $9, and Namecoin rose from $0.44 to $16.3.
It's important to note that Wise Advice emphasized the interconnected nature of these surges with Bitcoin's growth.
Money flow Pattern Explained
Phase 1 is characterized by money flowing into Bitcoin, leading to price surges. Phase 2 begins when Ethereum starts outperforming Bitcoin, sparking discussions about the "flipping."
Phase 3 sees Ethereum continually outperforming Bitcoin, with large caps experiencing rapid growth. The final phase signals the start of altcoin season, during which mid-caps, low caps and micro caps tend to experience a surge in value at the same time.
Additionally, large caps outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum, while meme coins also see a spike in value.
In simple terms, investors start to buy more and more BTC and its values go high. After that investors book the profit from Bitcoin and shift towards Ethereum and Altcoins.
Because the market cap of the smaller coin is low that's why small investments can significantly impact these tokens' prices. This is why tokens like Solana and Polkadot reached their ATHs faster.
What is Bitcoin Dominance Suggesting?
After each Bitcoin all-time high, its dominance decreases. After the 3rd halving, it went down to around 40%, and after the 2nd halving, it went down to around 35%. At press time the dominance was at 53%. Wise Advice considers that the market is likely at the start of a cycle that will eventually lead to a new altcoin season.
Altcoins and Memecoins That may Boost This Altcoin season
During this altcoin season, there are new contenders like Bonk (BONK), dogwifhat (WIF), Pepe Coin (PEPE), and PeiPei (PEIPEI), along with other new coins that could potentially perform better. In addition, new tap-to-earn game coins such as Notcoin (NOT) and Hamster Kombat are beginning to generate buzz. Solana ecosystem coins and real-world assets (RWA) might also perform well in the upcoming altcoin season.
Bitcoin Facing Weakness on the Technical Chart
On the daily technical chart, Bitcoin is facing multiple times rejections from a 200-day exponential moving average and heading in a downward direction.
However, the main reason behind this weakness is the rapid selling of BTC by the German government and the Mt. Gox repayment which created panic in the market.
Source: alternative. me
Bitcoin fear and greed index at extreme fear, lowest in last 1.5 years. The Fear and Greed index measures the sentiment of investors toward Bitcoin. The sentiment of fear is also in the market because big whales are selling Bitcoin right now.
Despite this, while BTC is facing weakness, some coins like Notcoin (NOT), Celestia (TIA), MANTRA (OM), etc., are giving good returns.
