Bitcoin ($BTC) is poised to end the monthly trade on a negative note, prompting fears over the viability of its recent bull run. The technical indicators are bearish now, with reducing trading volume further boosting the bearish sentiment.
For the asset to regain its bull run, as per Cryptoquant, it will have to breach two important levels of resistance: the short-term holder realized price of $90,700 and the three-month realized price of $97,300. The failure to break these may establish a prolonged phase of correction.
Despite the bearish bias, the asset open interest on BitMEX increased from $250 million to $291 million in 48 hours, reflecting more leveraged trading activity.
At the same time, more than 30,000 BTC have been exchanged out of exchanges in the last week, reports on-chain analytics firm Santiment.
Large exchange withdrawals usually indicate accumulation by long-term investors. Even so, such actions might not be sufficient to counteract selling pressure by other market players, including BTC miners.
Notable crypto analyst Ali Martinez has warned of a huge miner sell-off over the last week. Miners allegedly dumped more than 2,400 BTC, worth about $220 million. In the past, major miner sales have put downward pressure on the BTC price, particularly during low liquidity periods.
Moreover, Martinez rebutted the dominant bullish assumption correlating the asset price with world M2 money supply expansion. He pointed out that the world money supply has fallen by almost $1 trillion in the last fortnight, raising questions over speculation of a liquidity-fueled rally.
Bitcoin’s failure to hold key support levels has added to the bearishness. The market took a hit just today after breaking through the 200-day moving average (MA) — an uptrend line that has been in place since September 2024. Meanwhile, the MACD is also getting close to a bearish crossover.
The world's largest currency is currently testing a local support area around $81,000. If the bulls are successful in initiating a rebound, breaking above $83,000 could be in the cards. In case selling continues, the coin might experience a sharper correction towards $77,000 in the next few weeks.
Source: TradingView
With the pioneer currency price woes, prominent economist Peter Schiff saw an opportunity to lash out against BTC's "digital gold" tag. According to Schiff, gold recently set a record high of $3,097 while Bitcoin and other risk assets continued to dump.
If you still believe Bitcoin is digital gold, you should think again, " Schiff said, reopening a long-running war between Digital currency and traditional safe-haven currencies.
Bitcoin's present technical configuration indicates that there is a higher risk of downfall. The bulls will have to re-capture $83,000–$85,000 short-term to get out of the bearish environment. A deeper correction towards $77,000 can also happen as an alternative.
Traders would do well to closely observe on-chain metrics, miner behavior, and cross-world liquidity patterns to anticipate the next meaningful move. Even as the eventual bullish argument for BTC remains in effect, short-term uncertainty may well be the real ruler supreme.
Also read: GunZ Token Price Prediction: What Will Be the GunZ Listing Price?Lokesh Gupta is a seasoned financial expert with 23 years of experience in Forex, Comex, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and cryptocurrency markets. Investors have trusted his technical analysis skills so they may negotiate market swings and make wise investment selections. Lokesh merges his deep understanding of the market with his enthusiasm for teaching in his role as Content & Research Lead, producing informative pieces that give investors a leg up. In both conventional and cryptocurrency markets, he is a reliable adviser because of his strategic direction and ability to examine intricate market movements. Dedicated to study, market analysis, and investor education, Lokesh keeps abreast of the always-changing financial scene. His accurate and well-researched observations provide traders and investors with the tools they need to thrive in ever-changing market conditions.